UKIP: ahead of the curve on tax.

The government's plan to put into action the UKIP policy of rolling National Insurance into Income Tax is telling. Even more telling is the fact that both the Institute for Public Policy Research and the Adam Smith Institute, two groups who usually hold opposing views, both agree with the move. And the fact that 57% of those polled support the move (with 21% undecided) shows that this was another policy where UKIP had its finger on the pulse.

Its time for some credit to be given. UKIP is not just ahead of the curve on the EU, but on issues like immigration, education and now tax. The public have already been shown to back UKIP's policies on these issues when polled, and now it looks like the experts are as well. 

They should give the Party some recognition for proposing this latest Coalition move, one that UKIP proposed some five years ago. Those who dismiss UKIP as a fruity irrelevant fringe Party are clearly not paying attention.

There is no way we should be in Libya.

It seems we have awfully short memories in politics. After the scandal of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, we have now deployed UK forces into Libya.

Colonel Gaddafi is an odious individual. But he is fighting against an armed uprising consisting of tanks and machine guns. A "no fly zone" that seeks to stop Gaddafi attacking this rebels is nonsense. As the bombing of Libyan tanks has already begun, it is clear that the true mission is to rid Libya of Gaddafi. After all, he is not, as no head of an administration would, going to sit back and let the rebels defeat him and take charge of the country. He is going to defend what he sees as his country, meaning in my eyes that the UN have effectively taken the side of the armed rebels, not just civilians.

And who are these rebels? They are not just "ordinary people", they include former memebrs of Gaddafi's inner circle who propped up his regime before defecting after personal fall outs. They are tribal, divided and of course their is oil to be taken to sweeten the prospect of taking charge. Would ridding Libya of Gaddafi clear the country up and give it great hope? Ask an iraq without Saddam. These things are not so cut and dry.

As Fraser Nelson points out, this is not some selfless humanitarian intervention. Nicholas Sarkozy has elections coming up and is trailing in the polls, thus explaining his urge to go off without aopproval from the UN Coalition when the bombing began. If it was, why are we not intervening in Yemen where snipers shot dead 50 anti-government protestors and injured hundreds more in a merciless atttack. Or in Bahrain? How about in Zimbabwe where the Prime Minister there is having his rallies banned, as Robert Mugabe's police force beat supporters of the elected PM?

If I was cynical I would point out that none of these places have oil. But perhaps it is more simple than that. Libya is a relatively easy target, unlike say Saudi Arabia who are our allies thanks to our dependence on them for their oil. Politicians can play mucho and hope that Gaddafi can be paralysed easily. But I don't think it will be easy. I think more British lives are going to be lost and carried home in boxes, and for what? For a regime change, with a new set of people in charge who no one seems to know that much about.

And all this while David Cameron shamelessly cuts defence spending once more. It is an outrage. Britain cannot police the world. it is time we got a grip on our foreign policy and recognised that civil wars are that; they are not international ones.

What would happen if we got an EU referendum?

Maybe its my youthful optimism (or stupidity) but with the arrival of the new People's Pledge campaign alongside the already established EU Referendum Campaign, it seems as though the tide is finally turning. I believe that we may finally get a referendum on EU membership.

How? Well, I simply don't see David Cameron granting one. He bottled it big time with his "cast iron" Lisbon Treaty commitment and knows full well that the issue of whether the UK should stay in or leave the EU could split his Party down the middle.

The same is simply not true for the Labour or Liberal Democrats. Labour MPs who would opt for the UK to leave the EU would probably be restricted to at most, a gang of 15 - 20 backbenchers. The LibDems Parliamentary party would unanimously vote to stay in. I

Thus, Cameron has a lot more to potentially lose from an EU referendum. Not just in terms of receiving the pro-withdrawal vote that he wouldn't want, but from a Party that would suffer from serious internal division. That is why I think the best bet may be if the Labour Party put an In/Out referendum in their next manifesto, just as the LibDems did in 2010.

Ed Miliband will count on the backing of the big Union cash to help get the result he wants, selling the referendum as a way of causing utter chaos in the Tory ranks, not to mention the fact that it would split the Coalition down the middle at the same time. And as europhiles tend to think, they would no doubt be convinced that when those silly ordinary voters really learn about the EU, the tide of public opinion would turn and rally behind Britain's continued membership.

A mass of money would be involved. Vested interests would come into play, obviously. One only has to look at the huge sums pumped into Ireland during the Lisbon Treaty referendum to see how big business, the media and the political establishment (Cameron, Clegg, Miliband) would create an unholy Westminster alliance with unlimited funds and the majority of politicians on their side as they urged the public to back EU membership.

But it wouldn't go that way. As debates got underway, the Farage's, Carswell's and Kelvin Hopkins' of the no vote would be a stark contrast to the unpopular, familiar faces of the establishment pro-EU camp. A huge grassroots movement of those desperate to get Britain out of the EU would take to the streets and would be vastly more effective than the pro-EU foot soldiers, a sympathetic electorate interested and engaged in taking their opportunity to kick all three main Party Leaders and finally have their say on the EU after decades of being deprived of one. Let down by Prime Minister after Prime Minister, government after government, the debate would catch the interest of the public in a massive way. Both sides of the argument would argue that this was a massive and decisive moment in British political history.

Britain would leave after around 65% of voters backed Britain to be independent once again, on a whooping 73% turnout. A realignment of British politics would commence, a new era in British foreign relations would begin. As Westminster trembled, UKIP would claim to have helped bring back the most positive and drastic reform in recent modern history. From there the \Party would continue to pursue a libertarian, small government agenda that took advantage of a Tory Party that remained divided, as the Labour and Liberal Democrats scratched their heads looking to see how quickly they could get Britain back into the EU.

It would be a sweet moment, but one that would perhaps not truly settle the EU question. After all, the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader would still both be of the opinion that the whole referendum had been a terrible mistake, nevermind how pleased the public were with the result...

Record polling for UKIP as the Party hits 7%.

It is March 2011 and UKIP are polling at a stronger level than at any time in its history outside of the European Election cycle. Today's YouGov poll shows the Party on 7% nationally.

That is an incredibly strong figure for a Party which a few years ago was reguarly polling between 1% - 3%. With the Liberal Democrats down to 10% on the same poll, I think a strong showing from UKIP in May - and a wipeout for the LibDems - could propel UKIP into overtaking Nick Clegg's Party. That would simply be unprecedented, and just what would that mean for the Prime Ministerial debates that will come prior to the next General Election?

Though I'm sure many will try and downplay this surge as a rise of the "others", it simply is not. The Greens and the BNP both remain on a lowly 2%, showing that it is UKIP solely emerging as the Party that is the real alternative to the Coalition and Labour.

UKIP on 11% and beating the LibDems in London in latest YouGov poll.

UKIP's 7% showing for those aged 18- 24 is another impressive showing for the Party among young people. What is most extraordinary though is the Party's 11% showing for London.

That's ahead of the Liberal Democrats and would be a flabbergastingly good performance if it actually came to fruition. Though this may just be a rogue poll, if the Party could approach such a performance next year, then UKIP could pick up 3 seats on the Greater London Assembly and become the third biggest Party in London in the process.

UKIP is also leading the LibDems by 6% to 5% in the "North". How interesting that YouGov are now putting UKIP third down in the "others" section, despite usually ranking via polling numbers.

Think these showings are impossible? Fair enough. But how many predicted that UKIP would thrash the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives in Barnsley?

UKIP tied with LibDems in Welsh ITV poll.

A YouGov poll commissioned by ITV Wales has thrown up some interesting data, including the fact that UKIP are tied with the LibDems on 5% in the country in the regional vote section.

After securing an MEP in Wales in 2009, UKIP Wales has been steadily growing and stands a decent chance of securing a foothold in the Welsh Assembly. If the Party could compete with the Liberal Democrats for fourth position in Welsh politics, it'd be a real sign of a breakthrough.

Is the AV referendum one about young vs. old?

I'm not suggesting that every young person will vote "yes" or that only oldies will vote "no" when we all get a vote on AV. But the latest YouGov poll commissioned by the No2AV campaign shows something very interesting: a trend that young people are more likely to vote for AV to replace First Past The Post, and that those who are 60+ are by far the most likely to vote in favour of retaining FPTP.

18-24's are the most likely to vote "yes", with 36% indicating this. 31% of those polled over the age of 60 plan to vote "yes" in the same poll.

Meanwhile only 17% of 18-24's plan to vote "no" in the poll. This goes up to 24% for 25-39's, 30% for 40-59's and a whooping 43% for those over 60.

In what may be very good news for the Yes2AV campaign, younger people make up the bulk of the "don't knows".

The trend is undeniable and consistent in this poll. There is clearly a trend of the young wanting a switch away from First Past The Post, whilst older people are far keener to hang onto our present system.

Is the EU about to enforce board room gender quotas?

On International Women's Day, another powerplay from the European Union looks as if it is on the horizon. EU Commission Vice-President Viviane Reding and European Parliament President Jerzy Buzek have issued a statement, warning that if there is no "credible progress" with females in company board rooms then Europe will need legally binding quotas.

They "stand ready" to intervene in 2012, with a target of increasing women in board rooms to 30% by 2013. Currently 10% of those in board rooms in the EU are female, so the intervention would be presumably to treble the number of women in board rooms in a year.

That would involve a scale of intervention that I'm sure business leaders would be disgusted at, as well as many leading businesswomen. There is no doubt that women are under-represented at the top level of business, but it's also true that men are under-represented in terms of being the parent who brings up a family's children. There are less women in business overall thanks to lifestyle and career choices. Those women who do go into business usually have their careers interrupted by the decision to have a child and stay at home to raise them, though of course sometimes is the father who decides to sacrifice his career. But it is a decision and a choice.

As for those women who do stay in business, I know very few who would like to be promoted to a board room because of their gender. Would it really be progress for women to be belittled and promoted in such a patronising and tokenistic manner? Surely men would view businesswomen as less equal given that they would have EU legislation getting them a board room role rather than talent?

Once again though frankly, this should have nothing to do with the EU. After all, those Commissioners and foreign MEPs who seem to want to push this legislation through in the near future can't be voted out by the British electorate. This could be another wake up call for business leaders right across the continent though and in the UK, that decisions being made with regards to how their business should run are to be decided by an unaccountable EU elite.

British hero fined £60, anti-British extremist gets fined £50.

Corporal Graeme Billington was fined £60 after parking in a disabled bay, despite having been blown up in Afghanistan and being in a wheelchair. This was even after he proved his injuries and received his blue badge days later.

Ermadur Choudhury got fined £10 less for burning a poppy on Armistice Day and chanting about how much he hates Britain.

What sort of pathetic society are we living in?

EDIT: Apparently Corporal Billington's fine has been overturned and he has received an apology. I very much hope that this is true. A rare victory for common sense and decency?

UKIP Come 2nd: How, Why, Wow? No, Never.

It has been a whirlwind few days as a UKIP member, with a 2nd place in Barnsley followed by the Spring Conference in Scarborough over the weekend.

One thing that a lot of UKIP members are dumbfounded by, myself included, has been the media coverage of Barnsley. Lets not forget, this was a constituency that UKIP had come 5th in last year, with nobody giving any hint whatsoever that the Party might cause an upset. I have been told that the BBC were expecting UKIP to at best, scrape past the BNP and possibly the Liberal Democrats if we did especially well.

Fast forward to election night, and the Party secures its first ever 2nd place in a Westminster seat. Fair enough, the LibDems collapse and Labour predictably perform well. But UKIP's dramatic rise is lumped in with the BNP in beating Nick Clegg's Party. There is no significant deal made of this 7.5% increase in the vote for what is considered by many in the media still as a "minor Party".

Hold on. UKIP didn't just scrape past the Tories. It spanked David Cameron's Party by nearly 1,000 votes and got pretty much the same amount of votes as the Coalition parties combined. This is unprecedented.

Yet the media seem to have virtually ignored this astonishing result. Perhaps it is too challenging to their cosy dismissal of UKIP as being single issue and minor. But if they are really honest with themselves, what we are seeing is the emergence of a truly radical alternative political force.

If UKIP can do this in Labour areas like Barnsley as well as Tory areas up and down the country, the next General Election could see a phenomenal UKIP performance. As much as the media may attack, ignore and attempt to discredit the Party, its performance at such elections is only going to grow. They had better get used to the idea.